In the fall of 2002, the broad market bottomed out from a more than 2-year bear run, collected itself briefly, and set upon a path higher that effectively carried the broad spectrum of stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) along with it. That bull market has now seen its fifth birthday come and go, despite challenges that include but are not limited to record-setting crude oil prices, destructive forces of nature, a green Fed Chairman, and a collapse in the credit markets.

Last week, an article in The New York Times pointed out that as of today (October 23), the bull run turned exactly 5 years and 14 days old, supplanting the 1982-1987 period to become the third-longest bull run in the last 75 years as far as the Dow is concerned. But as James B. Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Analyst quoted in the Times noted "bull markets do not die of old age." I certainly agree with Mr. Stack, but I still want to take this momentous occasion to look at the long-term charts of 3 major ETFs.

Declines in the S&P Depositary Receipts Fund (SPY) have been contained at its 80-week moving average, which most recently helped bounce the ETF higher in August. Note the dramatic acceleration in volume that occurred amid this latest retest.

My sense is that it is unusual for a bull market to experience this number of touches to an 80-week trendline, which I view as an indication of restraint rather than froth. What I'm not clear on is the implications of the ramped-up volume. A bull might well point to the huge July/August volume as indicative of a selling climax.

Checking in on the small caps, declines in the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) have also been halted at the 80-week moving average, but the pullbacks to support have been less "clean" than on the SPY. Additionally, the IWM also experienced similar volume acceleration in July and August.

Elsewhere, the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQQ) pulled back dramatically to its 195-week moving average (the black trendline in the chart below) in mid-2006, immediately preceding an upside acceleration. Unlike the 2 aforementioned ETFs, volume has been relatively stable in 2006/2007.

Note that the QQQQ peaked at around $50 in mid-2001 just ahead of a plunge to $19.76 during the next 15 months. Resistance at the mid-2001 peak has recently been taken out and this should have bullish implications.

Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com

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