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November 22, 2009 11:45:30 PM EST

News Story

ECB Expected To Hold Key Rates
Thursday November 05, 2009 02:28:00 EST

(RTTNews) - Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to hold its key interest rate unchanged for the sixth straight month when its Governing Council reviews its monetary policy. The central bank is expected to continue its extraordinary measures for the time being, though calls for setting exit measures have strengthened.

The ECB Governing Council, led by President Jean-Claude Trichet, is likely to leave its key interest rate, which is the interest rate on main refinancing operations at 1%. Interest rates on marginal lending facility and deposit facility are expected to be held at their current levels of 1.75% and 0.25%, respectively.

The Frankfurt-based ECB is set to announce the decision at 7.45 am ET. Thereafter, Trichet and ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos would hold a regular press conference. The ECB President is likely to repeat his statements made last month.

"We do not expect any new comments, either on the euro or on interest rates," ING Senior Economist Carsten Brzeski said on November 2. "It even remains doubtful whether the ECB will already want to give any insight on its intentions to mop up liquidity," The economist said the central bank is expected to make any important comment at the Santa Calus meeting in December.

Commerzbank analyst J??rg Kr??mer said on October 30 that the ECB is likely to make only modest changes in its communiqu??. Commerzbank expects healthy third quarter growth for the Eurozone region. At the same time, the firm said the ECB would harbor doubts about the solidity of the growth that has emerged in the second half of the year.

On October 15, Trichet said the non-standard measures need to be phased out as the situation normalizes, and substantial policy stimulus must be withdrawn. "When the appropriate time comes, there should not be any concern about the ECB's ability to exit," he said, adding that the ECB's decisions on interest rates and liquidity have been transmitted reasonably well to the rest of the economy.

"Trichet might hint that the ECB intends to begin to rollback unconventional measures next year, but we do not expect him to give anything like a master plan or even an indication of a schedule for the auctions next year," Danske Bank Senior Economist Frank ??land Hansen said. "Trichet will also reiterate that "current rates remain appropriate" and will not signal any rate hikes for the near future," the economist added.

Last week ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said, "Unconventional measures will likely be rolled back next year."

The ECB is expected to introduce an extra charge for its 12-month operation due on December 15, the third and final tender set for this year. Banks drew EUR 75 billion at the last offering in September, down from EUR 442 billion in the first tender in June.

The Eurozone economy probably exited the worst recession in the third quarter. According to an interim forecast by the European Commission, published on September 14, Eurozone would grow 0.2% in the third quarter and by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

 Continued...

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